New Delhi: China’s population has shrunk for the fourth consecutive year, official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed on January 19, 2026. The total population stood at 1.405 billion by the end of 2025, reflecting a net decrease of 3.39 million people compared to the previous year. This marks an acceleration in the downward trend that first emerged in 2022, signaling persistent structural challenges in birth rates, aging demographics, and societal shifts.
Record-Low Births Drive the Decline
The primary driver of the population contraction remains the sharp fall in births. In 2025, only 7.92 million babies were born nationwide—a 17% drop from 9.54 million in 2024 and the lowest figure recorded since the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949. The crude birth rate plunged to 5.63 per 1,000 people, setting a historic low. Demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison highlighted the gravity of this statistic, comparing 2025 births to levels seen in 1738 when China’s population was around 150 million.
Meanwhile, deaths increased to 11.31 million from 10.93 million the prior year, elevating the death rate to 8.04 per 1,000—the highest since 1968. The natural population growth rate turned deeply negative at -2.41 per thousand, underscoring the imbalance between births and deaths.
Fertility Rate Far Below Replacement Level
China’s total fertility rate hovers around 1 child per woman, significantly under the 2.1 replacement level required for long-term population stability without immigration. This places China among East Asian peers like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, where rates sit near 1.1. The gap ensures each successive generation is substantially smaller, fueling rapid aging and workforce contraction.
Legacy of the One-Child Policy and Modern Pressures
The roots of this crisis trace back to the one-child policy (1980–2015), which curbed population growth to address resource strains but profoundly altered family norms and reduced the childbearing-age cohort today. Relaxations in 2016 (two-child policy) and 2021 (three-child policy) failed to spark a sustained rebound.
Contemporary factors exacerbate the issue. Urbanization reached 67.89% in 2025, up nearly 25 percentage points since 2005, with urban residents facing high housing costs, cramped living spaces, and expensive education/childcare. Young adults delay marriage and parenthood amid career demands, economic uncertainty, job insecurity, and a high-pressure work environment. Rising female workforce participation, cultural shifts toward individualism, and easy access to family planning further discourage larger families. A YuWa Population Research Institute report notes China as one of the costliest places globally to raise children.
Marriage Trends Offer Glimmer of Hope Amid Decline
Marriages, a strong leading indicator for births in China, fell sharply in 2024 to about 6.1 million couples—a record drop. However, a May 2025 policy allowing nationwide marriage registration (instead of restricting it to hometowns) triggered a rebound: third-quarter 2025 registrations rose 22.5% year-on-year to 1.61 million. This temporary surge may yield a modest birth increase in coming data, though experts caution it is unlikely to reverse the broader trend.
Government Incentives and Their Limited Impact
Beijing has intensified pro-natalist efforts. Measures include cash subsidies (e.g., 3,600 yuan per child under three in select regions), extended maternity leave, tax breaks for kindergartens and daycares, matchmaking support, and planned 2026 full reimbursement of pregnancy medical expenses—including IVF—under national insurance with zero out-of-pocket costs. Reuters estimates place 2026 birth-boosting expenditures around 180 billion yuan.
Despite these steps, impact remains limited. Deep-rooted economic barriers, lifestyle preferences for personal freedom, and work-life imbalances outweigh financial perks. Controversial moves, like adding a 13% VAT on contraceptives, have drawn criticism over potential health risks.
Rapid Aging and Economic Implications
The population aged 60 and over reached 323 million in 2025, comprising 23% of the total (up one percentage point from 2024). Those aged 65+ stood at 223.65 million (15.9%). Projections indicate over-60s could hit 400 million by 2035—roughly the combined populations of the United States and Italy—triggering massive workforce exits amid stretched pension systems.
The working-age group (16–59) fell to 851.36 million (60.6% of total), down from prior years. This shrinks labor supply, threatens productivity, weakens domestic consumption, and complicates debt management. The United Nations forecasts suggest China’s population could halve by 2100 without major changes, posing risks to economic growth, social welfare, and elderly care as fewer young people support more seniors.
Path Forward: Strategies to Mitigate Demographic Winter
Experts describe China’s situation as part of a global “Demographic Winter”—persistent sub-replacement fertility and inverted age pyramids. Potential responses include enhanced pro-natal policies (generous parental leave, affordable housing, reduced education competition), “silver economy” investments in healthcare and eldercare, pension reforms, AI/automation to offset labor shortages, and collaborative migration frameworks.
China’s 2025 data serves as a stark reminder of the urgency. As the world’s second-largest economy navigates this unprecedented shift, balancing short-term incentives with long-term structural reforms will determine whether the nation can adapt to a smaller, older population while sustaining vitality and global influence.
FAQs
1. Why did China’s population decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2025?
China’s population fell by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion in 2025, marking the fourth straight year of shrinkage since the trend began in 2022. The main driver is births (7.92 million) falling far short of deaths (11.31 million), resulting in a natural decrease. The crude birth rate hit a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people—the lowest since 1949—while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest since 1968. This imbalance stems from ultra-low fertility, an aging society, and fewer people in childbearing ages due to historical policies and modern pressures.
2. What is China’s current fertility rate, and how does it compare to the replacement level?
China’s total fertility rate is estimated at around 1 birth per woman (with some official figures from earlier years at 1.3 and expert estimates now closer to 1). This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population without migration. Similar low rates appear in other East Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore (around 1.1). The gap means each generation is roughly half the size of the previous one, accelerating long-term decline.
3. What are the main reasons behind the record-low birth numbers in 2025?
Births dropped 17% to 7.92 million from 9.54 million in 2024, despite government efforts. Key factors include:
Rising female workforce participation and access to family planning. A temporary marriage uptick in late 2025 (from policy changes) may offer minor relief, but structural issues dominate.
The legacy of the one-child policy (1980–2015), which reshaped family norms and reduced the pool of potential parents.
Economic pressures like high child-rearing costs (China ranks among the most expensive places to raise a child), expensive housing/education, job insecurity, and intense work culture.
Delayed marriage and parenthood due to career priorities, urbanization (68% urban in 2025), smaller living spaces, and shifting values toward individualism and smaller families.
4. What pro-natalist policies has the Chinese government implemented, and why haven’t they reversed the decline?
Since relaxing family limits—two children in 2016 and three in 2021—Beijing has introduced incentives like cash subsidies (e.g., 3,600 yuan per child under three), extended maternity leave, tax exemptions for childcare/daycares, matchmaking services, and plans for full pregnancy medical coverage (including IVF) with no out-of-pocket costs in 2026. Estimated costs for birth-boosting efforts reached around 180 billion yuan in recent years. However, these have had limited impact because they don’t fully address deeper issues like high living costs, economic uncertainty, work-life imbalance, and cultural shifts. Some measures, like taxing contraceptives, have even sparked controversy.
5. What are the economic and social implications of China’s ongoing population decline and aging?
The share of people over 60 reached about 23% (around 323 million) in 2025, projected to hit 400 million by 2035—equivalent to the U.S. and Italy combined. This shrinks the workforce (16–59 age group fell further), strains pension and healthcare systems, and challenges Beijing’s goals for domestic consumption and debt control. Fewer workers mean potential labor shortages, reduced productivity, and higher welfare burdens on younger generations. Long-term forecasts (e.g., UN) suggest China’s population could halve by 2100, risking slower growth, weakened consumer demand, and social issues like elderly isolation. Solutions may involve AI/automation, pension reforms, “silver economy” investments, and possibly migration policies.
