New Delhi: India stands at a pivotal moment in its agricultural history. A transformative policy paper, Indian Agriculture to 2047, released by the ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), offers a detailed roadmap for the future of the nation’s agri-food system. As India aspires to become a developed nation by 2047, the centennial year of its independence, this document highlights the remarkable evolution of Indian agriculture, identifies critical challenges, and proposes innovative solutions to ensure food security, sustainability, and economic viability.

A Remarkable Transformation: From Scarcity to Surplus

Over the past six decades, India’s agri-food system has undergone a profound transformation. Once grappling with food insecurity, the nation has emerged as a food-surplus country, thanks to the Green Revolution, input subsidies, and Minimum Support Prices (MSPs). These initiatives boosted agricultural productivity, enabling India to feed its growing population and even export surplus produce.

However, this progress has come with significant shifts. Agriculture’s contribution to India’s national income has declined from 43% to 18%, reflecting the economy’s diversification into industry and services. Meanwhile, the agricultural workforce has decreased more slowly, from 74% to 46%, indicating that nearly half of India’s labor force still depends on farming for livelihoods. This disparity highlights the need for policies that balance economic growth with rural employment opportunities.

The Challenge of Shrinking Landholdings

One of the most pressing issues outlined in the ICAR-NIAP paper is the increasing fragmentation of agricultural landholdings. The proportion of marginal landholdings (≤1 hectare) has risen from 51% to 68%, with the average landholding size shrinking from 2.28 hectares to 1.08 hectares. By 2047, this figure is projected to plummet to just 0.6 hectares, threatening the economic viability of small-scale farming.

This fragmentation is driven by rapid population growth, urbanization, and industrialization, which are reducing the total agricultural land from 180 million hectares to an estimated 176 million hectares by 2047. The net sown area is expected to shrink further to 138 million hectares, forcing farmers to increase cropping intensity from 156% to 170%. While this intensification may boost output, it risks exacerbating environmental pressures on already strained water and energy resources.

Key Insight: By 2047, the average landholding size in India is expected to drop to 0.6 hectares, making it harder for farmers to achieve economies of scale.

Diversification: Meeting Evolving Dietary Needs

As India’s economy and population evolve, so do its dietary preferences. The ICAR-NIAP paper projects that by 2047, aggregate food demand will more than double, with demand for nutrient-rich foods like fruits, vegetables, pulses, and animal products rising three to four times. Specifically:

• Fruits: Demand is expected to reach 233 million tons, growing at 3% annually.
• Vegetables: Demand is projected to hit 365 million tons, with a 2.3% annual growth rate.
• Pulses: Demand is anticipated to double to 49 million tons.
• Edible oils and sugar: Demand is expected to increase by 50% and 29%, respectively.

This shift reflects a growing preference for diverse, nutrient-rich foods, driven by rising incomes and urbanization. By 2047, India’s population is projected to reach 1.6 billion, with nearly half residing in urban areas. To meet these demands, the agricultural sector is diversifying, with animal husbandry and fisheries contributing 31% and 7% to agricultural Gross Value Added (GVA) in 2022-23, respectively. By 2047, these sectors are expected to account for 39% and 10% of agricultural GVA, underscoring their growing importance.

Key Challenges Facing Indian Agriculture

Despite its achievements, India’s agri-food system faces significant hurdles that could undermine its ability to meet future demands sustainably. The ICAR-NIAP paper identifies several critical challenges:

1. Shrinking Agricultural Land: Population growth, urban sprawl, and industrial development are encroaching on farmland, reducing the area available for cultivation.
2. Unbalanced Fertilizer Use: Differential subsidy rates and regional disparities have led to inefficient nutrient use, with low nutrient use efficiency exacerbating soil degradation.
3. Inefficient Water Use: Agriculture consumes 83% of India’s water resources, yet groundwater overexploitation and low water use efficiency remain major concerns. By 2047, water demand for agriculture is projected to rise by 18%.
4. Climate Change Impacts: Over the past five decades, extreme weather events like droughts, heatwaves, and floods have reduced agricultural productivity growth by 25%. As these events become more frequent, they threaten crop yields and food security.
5. Underdeveloped Markets and Value Chains: Weak market infrastructure, limited access to credit, and inefficient value chains hinder farmers’ ability to realize fair prices for their produce.
6. Cereal-Centric Policies: A policy bias toward rice and wheat has limited diversification, making the agri-food system less resilient to changing demands and environmental pressures.

These challenges underscore the need for a strategic overhaul of India’s agricultural policies to ensure long-term sustainability and resilience.

Recommendations for a Sustainable Future

To address these challenges and prepare for the demands of 2047, the ICAR-NIAP paper proposes a series of forward-thinking recommendations aimed at transforming India’s agri-food system. These include:

1. Strengthening Water Management

With water demand for agriculture set to rise, the paper emphasizes the need for sustainable water management practices. Key recommendations include:

• Promoting rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge to replenish depleted aquifers.
• Expanding micro-irrigation systems to improve water use efficiency.
• Phasing out electricity subsidies to discourage overexploitation of groundwater.

2. Reforming Fertilizer Use

To address unbalanced fertilizer use, the paper advocates for:

• Promoting nano-fertilizers to enhance nutrient delivery and reduce environmental impact.
• Encouraging sustainable practices like crop rotation and intercropping to improve soil health and reduce reliance on chemical inputs.

3. Investing in Research and Development

Increased investment in agricultural R&D is critical to developing climate-resilient crops, improving productivity, and enhancing sustainability. The paper calls for both public and private sector funding to drive innovation in farming practices and technologies.

4. Upgrading Market Infrastructure

To ensure farmers receive fair prices, the paper recommends:

• Strengthening market infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and improve access to markets.
• Integrating efficient value chains to connect farmers directly with consumers and processors.

5. Reforming Agricultural Price Policies

The paper advocates for a shift away from cereal-centric policies to support diversification. This includes reallocating resources from traditional staples like rice and wheat to nutrient-rich crops like fruits, vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds, which are critical to meeting changing dietary needs.

6. Adapting to Climate Change

To mitigate the impacts of climate change, the paper suggests adopting climate-smart agricultural practices, such as drought-resistant crops and precision farming, to enhance resilience and maintain productivity in the face of extreme weather events.

A Strategic Shift Toward Diversification

The ICAR-NIAP paper emphasizes the need for a “strategic shift” in India’s agri-food system to prevent commodity imbalances and meet future demands. This involves reallocating resources from traditional staples to diverse, nutritionally rich commodities. Fruits, vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds are identified as priority crops, requiring increased focus to align with evolving dietary preferences and nutritional needs.

This shift is particularly urgent given the projected decline in agricultural land and the intensification of cropping systems. Without proactive measures, the environmental consequences of increased water and energy use could undermine the sustainability of India’s agri-food system.

The Road to 2047: Balancing Growth and Sustainability

To achieve the status of a developed nation by 2047, India’s economy must grow at an annual rate of approximately 8%. This ambitious goal will require a robust agricultural sector capable of supporting a population of 1.6 billion while meeting the rising demand for diverse foods. The ICAR-NIAP paper underscores that achieving this balance will depend on bold policy reforms, increased investment, and a commitment to sustainability.

By addressing the challenges of land fragmentation, water scarcity, and climate change, and by embracing diversification and innovation, India can build a resilient agri-food system that ensures food and nutritional security for future generations. The recommendations outlined in the Indian Agriculture to 2047 policy paper provide a clear path forward, offering hope for a sustainable and prosperous agricultural future.

Conclusion

As India looks toward 2047, the transformation of its agri-food system will be a cornerstone of its journey to becoming a developed nation. The ICAR-NIAP policy paper serves as both a wake-up call and a blueprint, urging policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders to act decisively. By prioritizing sustainability, diversification, and innovation, India can overcome the challenges ahead and ensure that its agricultural sector remains a pillar of economic growth and food security for years to come.