New Delhi: South Asia teeters on the edge of a profound geopolitical crisis as India and Pakistan engage in a fierce exchange of retaliatory measures following a devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. On April 24, 2025, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a critical 1960 water-sharing agreement, prompting Pakistan to denounce the move as an “act of war” and counter by suspending the 1972 Shimla Agreement. The April 22 Pahalgam attack, which claimed 26 lives, has unleashed a diplomatic maelstrom, unraveling decades of bilateral frameworks and raising fears of regional instability.

The Pahalgam Tragedy: Igniting the Crisis

The spark for this escalating conflict was a brutal terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Baisaran Meadows, a renowned tourist destination in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, celebrated as “Mini Switzerland” for its breathtaking landscapes. The area, easily accessible without administrative permits, drew thousands annually. On that day, gunmen from The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), opened fire on tourists, killing 26 and wounding others. The attack, one of the deadliest in Kashmir in recent years, sent shockwaves through India and reignited long standing grievances against Pakistan.

Indian authorities, citing evidence of both Pakistani and local Kashmiri militants’ involvement, accused Pakistan of enabling cross-border terrorism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue justice relentlessly, promising to hold both the attackers and their supporters accountable. The massacre set the stage for a series of aggressive diplomatic moves, plunging bilateral relations into uncharted territory.

India’s Unprecedented Step: Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty

On April 24, 2025, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), led by Prime Minister Modi, made the historic decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank. The IWT governs the allocation of the Indus River system’s waters, with India controlling the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) and Pakistan relying heavily on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) for agriculture, power, and drinking water. India’s Ministry of Water Resources formally notified Pakistan, asserting that sustained cross-border terrorism violated the treaty’s cooperative foundation.

The notification also emphasized evolving realities since 1960, including population growth, India’s clean energy goals, and Pakistan’s alleged refusal to negotiate emerging disputes. India argued these factors restricted its ability to fully utilize its treaty rights. In tandem, India closed the Attari border crossing, revoked all Pakistani visas (with medical visas valid only until April 29), and expelled Pakistani military attaches from New Delhi. The Ministry of External Affairs halted visa services for Pakistani nationals effective April 27 and urged Indian citizens to avoid travel to Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Fierce Counter: ‘Act of War’ and Simla Agreement Suspension

Pakistan’s response was immediate and uncompromising. On April 24, 2025, the National Security Committee (NSC), chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, convened to address India’s actions. The NSC condemned the IWT suspension as a “reckless and illegal” violation of an internationally binding agreement, stressing that the World Bank’s involvement precludes unilateral abrogation. Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan underscored the Indus system’s role as a “lifeline” for Pakistan’s 240 million people, declaring that any disruption in water flows would be treated as an “act of war” warranting a response across all facets of national power.

In a dramatic escalation, Pakistan suspended the Shimla Agreement, a 1972 accord signed after the war that led to Bangladesh’s creation. The agreement, negotiated by Indira Gandhi and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, formalized the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and committed both nations to resolving disputes bilaterally. Pakistan announced it would hold all bilateral agreements, including the Shimla Accord, in abeyance until India ceases its alleged support for terrorism and adheres to international norms on Kashmir.

Pakistan’s retaliatory measures included closing its airspace to Indian airlines, shutting the Wagah border, and suspending all trade with India, including through third countries. It expelled Indian military advisors from Islamabad, limited India’s diplomatic presence in Pakistan to 30 staff, and revoked SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) privileges for Indian nationals, except Sikh pilgrims, who were given 48 hours to leave.

The Treaties: Bedrocks of a Fragile Coexistence

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has been a rare pillar of India-Pakistan cooperation, surviving wars and crises. It allocates roughly 80% of the Indus system’s flow to Pakistan, sustaining its agricultural economy and water security. The Simla Agreement, signed on July 2, 1972, marked a post-war effort to stabilize relations, establishing the LoC and facilitating the release of 93,000 Pakistani prisoners of war and the return of most captured territories, except strategic areas in Ladakh.

The suspension of these agreements represents a seismic breach in bilateral relations, threatening mechanisms that have underpinned a tenuous peace for decades.

Legal and Diplomatic Fault Lines

India’s IWT suspension has raised questions about its legal standing, with Pakistan arguing that the treaty’s international framework prohibits unilateral action. Islamabad plans to pursue legal recourse through institutions like the World Bank or the United Nations, potentially internationalizing the dispute. The Simla Agreement’s suspension jeopardies concerns about the LoC’s stability, a boundary respected even during conflicts like the 1999 Kargil War.

Pakistan’s NSC accused India of exploiting the Pahalgam attack to mask governance failures in Kashmir, citing the 2019 revocation of Article 370 as evidence of “demographic manipulation.” It also pointed to domestic policies, such as India’s Waqf Act amendments, to argue that India is marginalizing Muslims, reinforcing Pakistan’s Two-Nation Theory.

Regional and Global Implications

The crisis carries grave consequences for South Asia. For Pakistan, the IWT’s suspension threatens its agricultural backbone and water security, compounding challenges like groundwater depletion. The country’s warnings of a “water war” highlight the stakes, with potential economic and humanitarian fallout.

India’s actions signal a strategic leveraging of its upper riparian position to pressure Pakistan on security issues. However, this risks international criticism, particularly from the World Bank, which may view the suspension as a breach of global norms.

Globally, the crisis could draw intervention from major powers. The United States, focused on counterterrorism, and China, a key Pakistani ally, may seek to mediate or shape outcomes. The closure of airspaces and borders disrupts regional connectivity, affecting trade and tourism across South Asia.

Domestic Dynamics and Future Steps

In India, the government’s response has rallied public support, with Modi’s pledge for justice resonating amid outrage over the Pahalgam attack. A meeting scheduled for April 25 at Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s residence, involving senior ministers, will likely shape India’s next moves. While military action was not discussed at a recent all-party meeting, past responses to attacks like Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) suggest it remains a possibility.

In Pakistan, Prime Minister Sharif faces pressure to demonstrate resolve. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar dismissed India’s allegations as baseless, demanding evidence of Pakistan’s role in the attack. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif promised a “strong and effective” response, signaling readiness to escalate if provoked.

Navigating a Perilous Path

The India-Pakistan standoff of April 2025 marks a pivotal moment, dismantling decades of bilateral agreements and raising the specter of conflict over water and territory. Both nations must exercise restraint to prevent further escalation. International mediation, potentially through the World Bank or the UN, could offer a de-escalation pathway, but it hinges on mutual willingness to engage.

For now, South Asia stands at a critical juncture, with the Indus waters and the LoC embodying the delicate balance between cooperation and confrontation. The world watches as India and Pakistan navigate this high-stakes crisis.

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